i2B and The Arctic Challenge

The Arctic cryosphere is the epicentre of acute global change – it is turning “blue” (ice free). Abrupt Arctic warming and amplification – four times the planet’s mean rate since the 1980s – is driving rapid sea ice decline and irreversible deglaciation of Greenland. The wider consequences for the planet and society – already well in evidence – are intensifying to become profound, and yet, model-based projections vary considerably and lack validation.

The key challenge for humanity is how a blue Arctic will respond to and drive an increasingly warmer future climate. To date, we lack a concerted research framework to assess this critical knowledge gap along with the key data-sets to study the mechanisms underlying the rapid transition to a blue Arctic in response to global warming.

Into The Blue will apply a synergistic approach to retrieve and study, ground-breaking new Arctic records together with Earth System Models (ESM) and Ice Sheet Models (ISM). This will mark a step-change in Arctic climate research, providing unique scientific gains of how the cryosphere (sea ice and glacial ice) evolves under past “greenhouse” (warmer-than-present) climate states. i2B team’s strong track record in Arctic research and world-class field, laboratory, and model capabilities creates a unique platform to address its central question: Why and what were the global ramifications of a “blue” Arctic during past warmer-than-present-climates? i2B will answer this via three connected, cross-disciplinary Work Packages focussing on ice-ocean-ecosystem dynamics during past climate states significantly warmer than today.